Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 19.291501 20.967406 22.817023 25.028785 27.627618 30.618071 34.370482
2024-10-27 17.326468 19.656154 22.430871 26.055511 30.789881 36.962701 46.003596
2024-11-03 15.424295 18.017223 21.275101 25.820598 32.282098 41.677338 57.687913
2024-11-10 14.121545 16.882323 20.504749 25.849517 34.048878 47.307110 73.975841
2024-11-17 13.162002 16.039328 19.954858 26.021760 36.007011 53.954773 97.514848
2024-11-24 12.379898 15.326705 19.461343 26.145701 37.875188 61.266342 131.524710
2024-12-01 11.650291 14.601614 18.843426 25.940869 39.087527 67.892271 176.379159
2024-12-08 11.090642 14.059180 18.422975 25.969548 40.723548 76.472912 256.715702
2024-12-15 10.547371 13.490529 17.895076 25.718825 41.724682 84.181470 381.535899
2024-12-22 10.081750 12.998514 17.434552 25.510611 42.759327 92.901823 638.136657
2024-12-29 9.672566 12.560555 17.017211 25.316187 43.777165 102.641756 1343.097841
2025-01-05 9.320986 12.185762 16.667931 25.197861 44.952932 114.428126 6461.999579
2025-01-12 8.917883 11.714528 16.133291 24.675721 45.059403 122.505131 NaN
2025-01-19 8.801466 11.682347 16.333385 25.646266 49.458902 159.661237 NaN
2025-01-26 8.499206 11.337591 15.968099 25.401989 50.393465 179.890552 NaN
2025-02-02 8.261786 11.083261 15.741141 25.422340 52.167848 212.710880 NaN
2025-02-09 8.063357 10.880577 15.589401 25.585863 54.497976 262.472736 NaN
2025-02-16 7.873177 10.680831 15.427312 25.704334 56.767606 329.636841 NaN
2025-02-23 7.654610 10.423451 15.142128 25.504300 57.858394 394.161242 NaN
2025-03-02 7.479738 10.230403 14.962798 25.531678 59.868534 513.060161 NaN
2025-03-09 7.282995 9.992026 14.683853 25.287775 60.744996 634.372584 NaN
2025-03-16 7.103344 9.775105 14.432820 25.085274 61.762536 818.656770 NaN
2025-03-23 6.935896 9.572256 14.197148 24.896210 62.810430 1109.402966 NaN